4th and Goal
Jake Lowell
2020-04-13
I am using data from the nflscrapR package to investigate offensive success on goal to go situations on different downs.
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Table 1.
| down | Average_EPA | Median_EPA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.09 | -0.10 |
| 2 | 0.09 | -0.35 |
| 3 | -0.16 | -0.90 |
| 4 | 0.19 | -2.26 |
If we define sucess as a play with a positive value for excepted points added (epa), we can see
Table 2.
What is sucess rate and TD Rate from each downn ?
| down | touchdown | n | Touchdown Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 6461 | 0.7258735 |
| 1 | 1 | 2440 | 0.2741265 |
| 2 | 0 | 4171 | 0.6860197 |
| 2 | 1 | 1909 | 0.3139803 |
| 3 | 0 | 2439 | 0.6509207 |
| 3 | 1 | 1308 | 0.3490793 |
| 4 | 0 | 289 | 0.5700197 |
| 4 | 1 | 218 | 0.4299803 |
| down | success | n | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 4943 | 0.5553309 |
| 1 | 1 | 3958 | 0.4446691 |
| 2 | 0 | 3503 | 0.5761513 |
| 2 | 1 | 2577 | 0.4238487 |
| 3 | 0 | 2301 | 0.6140913 |
| 3 | 1 | 1446 | 0.3859087 |
| 4 | 0 | 278 | 0.5483235 |
| 4 | 1 | 229 | 0.4516765 |
Chart 3.
Chart 3.
