I am using data from the nflscrapR package to investigate offensive success on goal to go situations on different downs.
Table 1.
Goal to go - Average and median Expected points added by down
| 1 |
0.09 |
-0.10 |
| 2 |
0.09 |
-0.35 |
| 3 |
-0.16 |
-0.90 |
| 4 |
0.19 |
-2.26 |
If we define sucess as a play with a positive value for excepted points added (epa), we can see
Table 2.
What is sucess rate and TD Rate from each downn ?
| 1 |
0 |
6461 |
0.7258735 |
| 1 |
1 |
2440 |
0.2741265 |
| 2 |
0 |
4171 |
0.6860197 |
| 2 |
1 |
1909 |
0.3139803 |
| 3 |
0 |
2439 |
0.6509207 |
| 3 |
1 |
1308 |
0.3490793 |
| 4 |
0 |
289 |
0.5700197 |
| 4 |
1 |
218 |
0.4299803 |
| 1 |
0 |
4943 |
0.5553309 |
| 1 |
1 |
3958 |
0.4446691 |
| 2 |
0 |
3503 |
0.5761513 |
| 2 |
1 |
2577 |
0.4238487 |
| 3 |
0 |
2301 |
0.6140913 |
| 3 |
1 |
1446 |
0.3859087 |
| 4 |
0 |
278 |
0.5483235 |
| 4 |
1 |
229 |
0.4516765 |
Chart 3.
