I am using data from the nflscrapR package to investigate offensive success on goal to go situations on different downs.

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Table 1.

Goal to go - Average and median Expected points added by down
down Average_EPA Median_EPA
1 0.09 -0.10
2 0.09 -0.35
3 -0.16 -0.90
4 0.19 -2.26

If we define sucess as a play with a positive value for excepted points added (epa), we can see

Table 2.

What is sucess rate and TD Rate from each downn ?

down touchdown n Touchdown Rate
1 0 6461 0.7258735
1 1 2440 0.2741265
2 0 4171 0.6860197
2 1 1909 0.3139803
3 0 2439 0.6509207
3 1 1308 0.3490793
4 0 289 0.5700197
4 1 218 0.4299803
down success n Success Rate
1 0 4943 0.5553309
1 1 3958 0.4446691
2 0 3503 0.5761513
2 1 2577 0.4238487
3 0 2301 0.6140913
3 1 1446 0.3859087
4 0 278 0.5483235
4 1 229 0.4516765

Chart 3.

Chart 3.